The COVID-affected major championship schedule rolls on with the 2020 U.S. Open—it just won’t count for this season. But it certainly will count right away for gamblers, and after having Collin Morikawa among our top 13 ahead of the PGA Championship, we’re feeling confident the winner of the year’s second major will also come from our select list. While we will have plenty more in-depth coverage as this major gets closer, here’s our current ranking of the top 13 bets—based on Westgate Las Vegas Superbook odds—to win at Winged Foot.
Reason to pick: It’s been an odd stretch of golf since the restart for the 2016 U.S. Open champ, but he won the Travelers Championship and finished runner-up at the PGA. He also remains one of the straightest of the long hitters, which is a big reason why he posted four top-four finishes in this event from 2014-2018.
Cause for concern: His T-2 at Harding Park made him 0-for-4 with 54-hole leads in major championships and kept him with that 21-to-1 ratio of regular wins to majors. At some point, even DJ has to start worrying about that.
Reason to pick: The 2012 U.S. Open champ, Simpson’s irons (eighth in strokes gained approach) and putter (12th in strokes gained putting) should be enough to overcome his lack of distance. He’s also recorded five top-three finishes in only 12 starts this season.
Cause for concern: Simpson has only recorded two top 10s at majors since winning that U.S. Open. And while his irons and putter are superb, he only ranks 85th in strokes gained off the tee.
Reason to pick: Forget about the knee, forget about the missed cuts at regular events, forget about the trash-talk that backfired. It’s a major and this dude’s name will be on the leader board at some point.
Cause for concern: But. . . yeah. . . whether it was the knee, karma, or something else, that final round at the PGA wasn’t great. And neither is the fact he pulled out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Although that didn’t affect his odds (yet), it affects his ranking here as we dropped him from our top spot.
4. Collin Morikawa (20/1)
Reason to pick: A historic weekend at TPC Harding Park in which he shot a major championship record 128 over his final 36 holes officially put the 23-year-old among the game’s elites.
Cause for concern: Winning a second consecutive major would be another historic feat. Then again, nothing has seemed to faze this guy since turning pro last year.
Reason to pick: The World No. 1 must be more motivated than ever to win major No. 1 following the younger Morikawa’s breakthrough at the PGA. He’s certainly got the length to get around Winged Foot and the touch to manage these treacherous Tillinghast greens.
Cause for concern: While Rahm finished T-3 at Pebble Beach last year, the U.S. Open is the only major in which he’s missed multiple cuts.
6. Bryson DeChambeau (12/1)
Reason to pick: Bulked-up Bryson proved his grip-it-and-rip-it style can hold up in a major with a T-4 at TPC Harding Park. And for everyone who thinks his game is only about power, he ranks eighth in strokes gained putting and second in that stat since the restart.
Cause for concern: His strokes gained approach and around-the-green numbers. Bryson ranks 97th and 127th in those categories, respectively.
Reason to pick: Arguably the front-runner for PGA Tour Player of the Year with his three victories, JT deserves to be among the betting favorites.
Cause for concern: Since his lone major triumph at the 2017 PGA, Thomas has just one top 10 in his past eight major starts.
8. Xander Schauffele (20/1)
Reason to pick: A T-10 at TPC Harding Park was his sixth top 10 in a dozen career major championship appearances. It seems like it’s not a matter of if, but when this 26-year-old claims his first major.
Cause for concern: There are no flaws in his game, but the same thing has been said about many others before him. This isn’t horseshoes.
Reason to pick: The reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year hasn’t been as sharp since the restart. But because of that, you’re getting pretty decent odds for the four-time major champ.
Cause for concern: Zach Johnson has won a major more recently than this guy. Pretty crazy.
Reason to pick: He’s Tiger Woods and you’re getting 30-to-1 odds.
Cause for concern: He’s Tiger Woods and you’re getting 30-to-1 odds. There’s a reason for this happening at a second straight major. And there weren’t a lot of takers at the PGA. Woods also missed the cut at Winged Foot in 2006. That being said, it was his first tournament after the death of his father—and he’s the only player on this list who even played in that event.
Reason to pick: A stretch of four straight top-seven finishes has Day playing some of his best golf since he was World No. 1. And ranked only 48th in strokes gained putting, he hasn’t even gotten what’s potentially the best part of his game fully on track yet.
Cause for concern: It’s been over two years since his last win. Well, unless you count the Japan Skins event.
12. Tommy Fleetwood (30/1)
Reason to pick: This ball-striking Brit has the perfect game for a U.S. Open as evidenced by a solo fourth at Erin Hills and a runner-up at Shinnecock Hills.
Cause for concern: No matter what you thought about Paul Azinger’s viral comments during the Honda Classic, the fact remains that winning an event on American soil—in particular, a major—is a hurdle Fleetwood has yet to clear.
Reason to pick: Those missing Winged Foot’s treacherous greens will be put to the test, but Reed’s short game should give him an edge. Already a winner of a World Golf Championship this year, the 2018 Masters champ also has three top 15s in his past four starts, including a T-13 at the PGA.
Cause for concern: Not so much of a concern, but an observation that while he usually plays well in front of rowdy crowds—especially in New York—well, um, you know. . .